The recent terrorist attack on Pune coupled with the outrage felt across India, the Indian government declares a limited offensive against Pakistan
- to protect India's sovereignity against the terrorists based in Pakistan
- to dismantle the terror infrastructure across the border
- to ensure its citizens are safe and do not have to fear the terrorists
Majority of India supported it. India calls up Obama and tells US to stay away from it as the issue is between India & Pakistan and the situation deals with the right of India's sovereignty, just as US sovereignty was attacked during the 9/11 attack.
Suddenly Pakistan wakes up from lazy confidence that India will not attack it and Pakistani PM Zilani with a brave front declares - let India attack and we will show them what Pakistan is.
Meanwhile the maulas of Pakistan calls all the people in the name of Islam to unite and fight against Hindu India. Zilani calls up Obama for his support against India. Obama says US is committed to maintain peace across the globe. China declares India as the aggressor and it declares it will protect Pakistan against any Indian aggression.
Europe declares the issue can be resolved with talks and India should not go to war. A hurried meeting of UN Security Council is held and the permanent members of the Security Council declare India cannot go to war with Pakistan.
The Pentagon simulates the different war scenarios between the two countries and declares all different scenario point out towards a nuclear war. The whole world is tensed.
The Indian army fires the first shot across the border and shells start getting exchanged on the border. World Bank threatens India that it will stop its aid for various projects. Indian army starts advancing in the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Pakistan now moves its soldiers from its western front in Afghanistan towards its Indian border.
The US army now without the backing of Pakistan army feels itself insecure. Now the war has a direct impact on US interests and it wants to avoid any conflict in this region. It threatens India with punitive action; India does not pull back its soldiers.
China with its string of Pearls against India deploys its nuclear submarine in the Indian Ocean and declares of its intention if India does not pull-back immediately. US ask India to exercise caution
US put its own vessel targeting India. It announces that it is to prevent India attacking Karachi through the seas. Meanwhile, India's lone friend Russia threatens US of any aggression against India would result in Russia coming in.
At the home front, the prospect of bloody war, cause the Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) to flee the country tanking the sensex over a 500 points till the trading was suspended. The market loses confidence on India story and a frenetic selling starts happening. Fearing a short of essential food-items, the cost of vegetables and grains shoot through the roof.
Expecting further deterioration of supplies, the traders started holding stock to sell at a higher rate. Government intervenes and RBI releases money from its coffers. This in turn increased inflation. With millions going towards war-effort, the other businesses will start feeling the pinch.. The economy would be impacted.
The Pakistani army general discusses a possible nuclear attack on India, if US and China does not make India retreat. Pakistani PM is under immense pressure to deploy a nuclear bomb from the Maulas for whom a nuclear bomb deter India from its advances It sends out an SOS to US and China about its intentions....
- During the course of the 25 days - the following things also occurs
- On TV, debates raged of the possible pros and cons of war with Government fiercely defending its decision. In the international community, India stood isolated on its stand with a possible Russia supporting it. Indian army was fast advancing through the PoK region.
- International community voices concerns over and over against India
- A thousand more jihadis are born seeing the war to defeat India
- The neighbours get nervous. Any nuclear strike will impact millions across the sub-continent including the neighbouring countries.
- Initial euphoria of the war will pass away and people will want to get over with the war soon so that they resume their normal lives.
- India will become permanently hyphenated with Pakistan.
- India will remain in the world's eyes the aggressor, even though India would have suffered colossal loss including the lives lost during the pre-war time
- Pakistan will receive billions of aid while India will only get sanctions.
- Taliban on the other hand will get a reprieve and they would re-group after the war and come at US stronger.
- The Pakistan civil society will become completely anti-India and army will be back in power.
- China will start attacking India, opening up a second front. US though reluctant will join China to thwart a nuclear war. Russia and Europe may come in, to ensure the stability of region is maintained.
Even if India captures the PoK region, a huge re-building effort will be needed. Needless to say India will have to woo back the investors and it will be some time before the pre-war era comes back. Terrorism will not end. In fact a new fresh would be formed between the two countries which can invoke thousand more jihads. Eventually this is what the terrorists want we would be playing directly into their hands.
The above scenario can get worse or even better. The point is war is not an easy thing. It definitely will put the nation back and the probability that terror will cease to exist is zilch as terrorism does not always originate from Pakistan. There host of other places it can come. Looking at all this, it never justifies going to war. However, talks help. Not in the short run though, but definitely in the long run.
The terrorists are throwing the gauntlet at us. We can improve our internal security to an extent we can prevent such dastardly attacks. Meanwhile a continuous dialogue, will weaken the terrorist claim - that India is against Pakistan or even Islam. Probably India improving trade and helping it to grow economically may have better impacts as the number of people signing up for jihad will at least reduce seeing the economic prosperity. India cannot grow alone. It has a shared history with Pakistan and probably will have to ensure Pakistan shares the destiny it wants to have for itself.
PS: The scenario that has been played out is similar to the one that happened during the 1971 war. See References. Also the impact on economy wasn't substantial during the previous wars, yet India is now more than ever before integrated with global economy and the perception of businesses do matter.
String of Pearls - www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/PUB721.pdf
1971 War Details - http://www.expressindia.com/news/ie/daily/19990312/iex12093.html
Time magazine coverage of 1971 war - http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,878970,00.html
Economic cost of war - http://www.thehindu.com/2002/01/05/stories/2002010501261000.htm